Report 1622

After the close of the latest Gulfood fair in Dubai, demand from China for beef “remained firm,” translating into higher sales prices, although the market is “still taking shape and is a tug-of-war,” according to several agents.

Prices for chilled beef for the European market remain firm, although their pace of appreciation slowed over the last week, particularly for the Argentine product. Market sources reported deals in a range of US$/t 15,400-16,000 FOB during the past week.

A Brazilian exporter praised the latest edition of Gulfood in Dubai last week. He said that while there was interesting activity, “prices are still the major issue” to close new loads with MENA countries and China.

New business with the US has been “a bit quieter” over the past week, although a trader noted this is “normal,” as importers typically come to the market in set windows —“buy,” “stock up,” and then return for more deals. “That’s how this market works; in 10 or 15 days, they’ll be back,” the source said.

Spot beef imports in Chile continue with little fluctuation, at around US$/t 5,900-6,000 CFR for the 19 cuts from Brazil and US$/t 6,200-6,300 from Paraguay. An importer told WBR that the Chilean domestic market has yet to rebound, with January and February 2025 “worse” than last year.

The average price of slaughter cattle in the region fell for the second week in a row. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index lost 4 cents on the week, settling at US$ 3.82 per kg carcass weight, mainly pressured by falling Brazilian references.

The average export value of beef maintained its gradual downward trend in the third week of February. According to information from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), Brazil exported 53,295 tons in the week ending January 22, the highest weekly volume since the first week of the year.

JBS held a conference for investors on the company’s outlook for this year, focusing especially on the increase in planned investments. It indicated it intends to allocate about US$1 billion for expansion and the same amount for maintenance, totaling US$2 billion.

The Federal Regional Court of the 3rd Region ruled last week that the export of live cattle from Brazil for slaughter in another country is in accordance with Brazilian legislation and does not constitute mistreatment.

Brazil is on the verge of making a major leap in tracing its cattle and buffalo herds with the National Individual Identification Plan for Cattle and Buffaloes, launched in December 2024.

The price of cattle sent to slaughter in Brazil’s main livestock-producing states tended lower this week. The average price for finished male stood at R$/@ 296.7, down R$ 5 on the week and the lowest level in nine weeks. The firmness of the real in these first weeks of the year is moderating the decline when expressed in US dollars.

The record generation of calves born in the last calving season suggested that by the end of the current 2024/25 fiscal year, the cattle herd could grow relatively significantly. However, extraction has been more intense than expected, meaning growth will ultimately be modest.

Minerva Foods has already formally submitted its new proposal to acquire three of the four Marfrig plants in Uruguay to the Commission for the Promotion and Defense of Competition (Coprodec), WBR has learned. Sources familiar with the operation indicated that since the commission already has background information on what the deal entails, the case analysis should be much faster than the initial process, which took over a year including Minerva’s appeal (which it lost) to the Executive Branch.

The protocol from Israel for authorizing live cattle imports from Uruguay has arrived, confirmed the Director General of Livestock Services, Diego de Freitas, to Radio Carve. Yesterday, Israel notified that it had accepted the certificate that was under negotiation. “This is another achievement that we value greatly,” said De Freitas.

After two years of negotiations, the Algerian authorities confirmed the approval of the international health certificate authorizing the export of live cattle for slaughter from Uruguay.

The Casa Blanca meatpacking plant, located in the city of the same name in Paysandú, filed for voluntary creditor protection this Friday. “We felt it was the right move at this time to request voluntary creditor protection,” the company’s general manager, Carlos Fuidio, confirmed to WBR.

The economic difficulties faced by Uruguay’s meatpacking industry in recent years have intensified significantly this year, with several plants having had no activity during the nearly two months since 2025 began and others reducing operations to a minimum.

The breeding herd is in favorable condition, allowing optimism for achieving a high pregnancy rate in the current breeding season, which is now coming to an end. A survey by the Instituto Plan Agropecuario (IPA) indicates that natural pasture height is sufficient to support adequate nutrition for the breeding herd.

The BPU plant in Durazno, owned by the Minerva group, will resume slaughter in the first days of March. Labor issues have been resolved, and all that remains is to finalize the details for securing enough livestock to restart operations.

Cattle prices in Uruguay are on the rise for all categories, driven by strong demand and favorable forage conditions that allow suppliers more flexibility.

Since mid-last week, deals are closed at price levels a step above previous ones. The plants leading the demand and imposing stricter requirements on purchased lots are paying US$ 4.30-4.35 per kilo carcass weight for special grass fed steers with carcasses over 260 kg.

The workers’ strike in the meatpacking industry last Thursday and the end of the quota 481 window affected processing activity. According to INAC, 45,658 cattle were slaughtered in the week ending February 22, 11% fewer than the previous week and the lowest total since the first one of the year.

The sheep meat market continues to rise. Despite only three large packers currently operating in this segment (Frigocerro, Las Piedras, and San Jacinto) following the exit of Somicar and Bamidal, demand is strong and paying higher prices.

Argentine beef exports saw a sharp downturn in January 2025, according to data from INDEC. With around 46,200 tons (product weight) shipped, totaling US$227.7 million, the decline compared to December 2024 was 20.1% in volume and 11.1% in value.

In January, 2,496 metric tons of chilled beef were shipped to the EU, marking a 41.4% drop from the previous month and 29% year-on-year. As a result—even including the 547 tons of frozen beef that the EU purchased—Europe ranked fourth in January, after China, Israel, and the United States.

Recent heavy rains, expected to continue in the coming days, are complicating cattle shipments from grazing fields. Added to this, the two days of Carnival holidays next week will further tighten supply, triggering a sharp price increase at the Cañuelas (formerly Liniers) market, Argentina’s benchmark.

Taiwan’s government reported that two Paraguayan meatpackers have been authorized, as of February 18, to export pork and beef. Frigorífico Pirayú was cleared to export pork, while Frigorífico Victoria will export beef.

After the sharp adjustment in cattle prices last week, the market is now in a “transition” phase. According to a market operator, list prices indicate references of US$ 3.50-3.55 per kg carcass weight for common males and US$ 3.30 for finished cows.

In January, Chile imported 18,517 metric tons of beef at an average value of US$/t 6,626, according to data released by Odepa. The volume is 11% higher than in January 2024, and the average value rose by 17%.

The February Cattle on Feed Report from USDA shows the number of cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the US for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head was 11.7 million head on February 1, 2025. That is 1 percent below February 1, 2024.

Sales in Texas and Kansas were at US$/cwt 199 while most live sales in the north were at US$/cwt 200 late last week. Dressed sales in the north were mainly at US$/cwt 315. Live prices have fallen US$/cwt 3-4 last week while dressed sales are 5 lower.

Compared to the last market test, import prices were unevenly steady, some sales for immediate delivery were firm to higher.

The European Commission has presented a long-term vision (until 2040) for the European Union’s (EU) agriculture and food policy. The document highlights the strategic importance of the agri-food sector for Europe’s food security and proposes measures to strengthen farmers’ profitability, facilitate generational renewal, and reward ecosystem services. It also includes a transition to a low-carbon economy, promoting the use of biopesticides and biotechnology, and recognizes that agriculture is “part of the solution, not the problem” regarding carbon emissions.

The new year has begun with declining pork prices. According to Rabobank, this is due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany, which has disrupted the meat market and put pressure on prices both in Germany and abroad. In its quarterly report, the bank also states that pork production in the European Union and the United Kingdom is expected to fall by 0.5% this year.

There is no evidence of significant market power in either input or output markets for beef or lamb in Australia, an important new independent economic study has found.

The latest quarterly statistics on livestock slaughter and meat production from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) have shown that 2024 was the largest year for lamb and sheep slaughter in decades.

For Q4 last year, adult cattle slaughter reached 2.13m head, which was 16% above the same quarter in 2023. Over the whole year, 8.3 million cattle were processed, which was the largest throughput since 2019 and 18% higher than 2023.