Pork production could drop 0.5% in Europe, according to Rabobank

The new year has begun with declining pork prices. According to Rabobank, this is due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany, which has disrupted the meat market and put pressure on prices both in Germany and abroad. In its quarterly report, the bank also states that pork production in the European Union and the United Kingdom is expected to fall by 0.5% this year.

In 2024, better margins led to moderate growth in pork production in the 27 EU member states and the UK, Rabobank noted. Between January and September 2024, output rose by 2% compared to the same period the previous year. However, the bank believes this growth is unlikely to continue in 2025. A previous sector update indicated that the sow herd may have decreased slightly last year. As a result, Rabobank expects EU27 and UK pork production to decline by 0.5% in 2025.

On the other hand, China’s demand for pork is expected to remain at roughly the same level between 2025 and 2024, though geopolitical tensions pose risks. China’s antidumping investigation into European pork and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House could result in higher import tariffs on European pork.