Report 1629

Demand from China remains strong and the market is firm, but this week there were signs of a slowdown in the recent upward price trend after significant increases in previous weeks. Exporters are becoming more cautious, recalling past experiences in which, after a sharp upward spiral in prices, the market turned and contracts were left unfulfilled or buyers attempted to renegotiate.

After the disruption caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of additional tariffs, and several days without further decisions from Washington, the beef export market to the United States appears to be taking shape again.

The beef export market to the European Union, for both chilled and frozen beef, remains firm with prices at similar or slightly higher levels than last week, although some importers are attempting to halt the recent surge.

Kosher teams for Israeli production are expected to return to the region generally during the first week of May.

The Chilean beef import market is experiencing generally weak demand. There have been some delays from Paraguayan suppliers due to heavy rains—especially in the Chaco region—which have prevented cattle from being transported to slaughter plants.

The sharp rise in export prices to China has eroded the competitiveness of exports to Africa and the Middle East. “We’re getting a lot of requests from Africa, but we have nothing to offer them,” a Brazilian exporter told WBR.

The export market for beef offal remains firm overall. Exporters in Uruguay reported rising prices in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. As reference, bible tripe was sold to Hong Kong at US$ 3,800 CFR, and lips to Thailand at US$ 1,400/t FOB.

Unlike what happens with beef, in the case of sheep meat, the best prices are found in the Middle East. Sheep supply in Uruguay is very limited, but some deals are still being closed. One trader mentioned reference prices of US$ 4,200 per ton for 6-way-cut mutton and US$ 3,800 per ton for carcasses.

After last week's pause, the average steer price in Mercosur countries resumed its upward trajectory. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index recovered 5 cents during the week to US$ 3.89 per kilo carcass weight.

Global beef production in 2025 is forecast virtually unchanged from 2024 at 61.6 million tons as falling production in the United States, Argentina and the European Union is offset by increases in Brazil, India, and Australia, said the United States Department of Agriculture in its April update about global meat supply, trade and demand.

Global exports are forecast to increase 1 percent in 2025 to 13.1 million tons as increases for Brazil, India, and Australia offset lower U.S. exports. Outside the United States, global exports are anticipated to increase 2 percent. China imports are forecast 2 percent higher, a slower pace than in previous years due primarily to weaker consumer demand. U.S. imports are forecast to increase 5 percent as demand for lean trimmings remains high.

2025 China beef imports are forecast to increase 2 percent, a slower growth rate than in previous years. Economic uncertainty and cautious consumer spending will constrain beef demand, said the United States Department of Agriculture.

The expected contraction in cattle supply for slaughter in Brazil this year did not materialize in the first quarter, though it is almost certain to happen later on. Slaughter at federally inspected plants (SIF), which are authorized for export, totaled 7.05 million head in the first three months of the year, a figure never reached before for the first quarter.

Brazil accelerated its beef export pace in the second week of April. The Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) reported that in the first nine business days of the month (through April 13), 98,194 tons were exported, of which 60,774 tons were shipped in the second week alone, at a daily pace of 12,155 tons, the bulkiest since the first week of March.

China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) rejected the application for approval of 28 Brazilian beef plants, according to Pecuaria.

The decision followed a technical analysis that pointed out several non-compliances. Among the issues cited were the location of plants in regions considered to have sanitary restrictions from the Chinese perspective, the absence of dressing rooms with direct access to production areas, and shortcomings in verifying the age of animals at the time of slaughter.

Slaughter cattle prices in Brazil increased for the fourth consecutive week, driven by tighter supply and strong international demand with smooth sales at rising prices.

Between the end of the month and early May, the first ship with live cattle bound for the Israeli market will set sail, opening a new trade route for live cattle exports. This will add to an already dynamic and fluid market, driven by strong demand from Turkey.

The National Meat Institute (INAC) released its monthly report on the Type Steer 2.0 indicator for March 2025, showing another monthly increase in the index, driven by both international and domestic market gains.

The slaughter cattle market remains very similar to previous weeks, both in terms of category prices and bookings.

Special grassfed steers are holding at a base of US$ 4.60 per kilo. There is potential for deals at US$ 4.65–4.70 per kilo when the lot is located in the southern half of the country or when no slaughter date is set, which can result in loading taking place several weeks later.

Cattle slaughter continued to increase last week. According to INAC, 49,416 head of cattle were processed during the week ending April 12, 582 more than the previous week and the highest volume since the second week of February. For the fourth consecutive week, slaughter surpassed the volume recorded during the same period last year.

Sheep slaughter declined again last week, reaching the lowest volume so far this year. INAC reported that 6,229 sheep were processed, 1,775 fewer than the previous week (-22%) and nearly 11,000 fewer than the same week last year. Only 2,320 lambs were slaughtered, a weekly drop of 1,190 head.

As WBR anticipated in its edition 1628, Argentina’s cattle herd at the end of 2024 declined for the second consecutive year, reaching 51.63 million head, 1.2 million fewer (-2.2%) than the previous year, according to official data from the National Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (SAGyP). Compared to 2022, the stock decreased by 2.6 million head.

Argentina eased the currency controls that involved a regulated official exchange rate which devalued 1% per month, alongside several alternative exchange rates. Replacing that policy, the government established a dollar trading band between AR$ 1,000 and 1,400, within which the value can fluctuate without official intervention.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that he does not rule out the possibility of reducing tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Argentina: “We’ve just begun negotiations. We talk with every country. Everything depends on several obstacles: tariff and non-tariff barriers, currency manipulation, and subsidies,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg.

Despite requests from Argentina’s four national farming organizations, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccination will continue unchanged at least until next October, according to La Nación newspaper.

It is difficult to establish market prices during this atypical week, both because it was short (due to two Easter holidays) and because of the changes to the exchange rate regime that took effect Monday. According to two livestock consignors, the exchange shift seemed less relevant to price firmness than market fundamentals: “I think we need to wait, but prices are independent of the new measures: the issue is that there’s no fat cattle available,” said one livestock brokerage.

There are regions of Paraguay, especially in the Chaco, where it has rained 600 millimeters over the last five weeks. This has caused serious difficulties in accessing cattle, overheating the slaughter cattle market and resulting in very tight bookings.

President Donald Trump's administration is considering softening its proposed fee on China-linked ships visiting U.S. ports after a flood of negative feedback from industries that said the idea could be economically devastating, according to six sources consulted by Reuters and informed during a Global Agritrends presentation.

Fed cattle prices corrected downwards by the end of last week, but packers bought a reduced number of animals. As a consequence of reduced buying, “packers are entering this week with extremely short inventories, but “Good Friday” will make the week short for slaughter volumes”, according to The Ag Center.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were mostly sharply higher, the USDA said.

The political uncertainty stemming from the imprisonment of Turkey’s main opposition leader in March led to a sharp drop in the Turkish lira, which remains weak against the US dollar. However, the monthly devaluation has moderated to just over 4%, and this has been more than offset by a steady increase in finished cattle prices.

Wholesale beef prices in China remain at low levels. According to the monthly report by OIG+X, in March both beef and lamb were trading slightly above US$8 per kilo. A year ago, beef was selling around US$9.50 and lamb at US$9, which means prices have dropped by 15% and 9%, respectively.

According to the index compiled by OIG+X, imported beef stocks in China increased in March, marking the third consecutive monthly rise after hitting a low in December.