China beef import growth to slow amid global uncertainty

2025 China beef imports are forecast to increase 2 percent, a slower growth rate than in previous years. Economic uncertainty and cautious consumer spending will constrain beef demand, said the United States Department of Agriculture.

Additionally, the largest beef suppliers are keenly awaiting the results of a special safeguard investigation. In another development, the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) allowed the registration of most U.S. beef export facilities to lapse in mid-March. With GACC’s failure to update the registration list, a significant portion of U.S beef production is now ineligible to be exported to China. While U.S. beef only accounted for 5 percent of total China imports in 2024, China accounted for 16 percent of total U.S. exports. Eligible U.S. products now face a 106-percent tariff, after China announced retaliatory tariff measures on U.S. goods which now totals 84 percent. This is in addition to the 22-percent tariff on U.S. beef that was in place before the new retaliatory measures were announced.

USDA projects China beef imports will stand at 3.825 million tons carcass weight, a slight annual increase of 82 th tons (2%). Beef production in China is projected at 7.74 million tons this year, 1% lower than in 2024, so beef consumption would stay steady at 11.547 million tons, just 5 thousand tons less than the year before.