Report 1625

The attitude of Chinese importers changed last week, with greater eagerness to close deals and an improvement in sale prices from the region. “The Chinese are looking for all they can get,” said a Brazilian exporter. The source reported deals for forequarter 8 cuts at US$5,500 CFR and 80VL trimming at US$3,900.

A Paraguayan exporter noted that the international market “moved” in the past week after Brazil began to push its selling prices up in China. “It looks like we’ll have an active remainder of the year, with plenty of competition to secure slaughter cattle,” he predicted. Given the uncertainty about the cattle market’s behavior, “there’s no need to rush into forward sales,” he added.

With no major changes in the tight regional supply dynamics, chilled rump & loin prices remained firm, with Argentine deals closing at US$16,500–16,800 FOB for regular Hilton programs. One European importer stated that most offers this week were around US$17,000/ton or higher. “We aren’t offering today, but if we had to go on the market, we wouldn’t go below US$17,500,” said a plant source.

The US import market is “almost paralyzed” because of the uncertainty arising from President Donald Trump’s announcement to raise tariffs on imported agricultural products starting April 2. “It could cause a huge financial disruption. Imagine an importer closing a 10-container deal at US$1 million, only to suddenly face an extra US$250,000 in unplanned tariffs. It’s a big blow, and this is a low-margin business,” a market operator told WBR.

Kosher crews working in the region are entering their final production weeks before the Passover break, which runs from April 12 to 20. Paraguayan industry sources reported that the final slaughter date for all crews in the country will be March 28.

Chile’s import market continues “very slow,” with “payment issues” and “no momentum,” according to a broker active there. “It was the worst start of the year in a long time,” he said.

The dollar’s weakness is pushing up exchange rates in regional countries, which in turn has increased reference prices for finished cattle. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by 4 cents over the week to US$3.83 per kg carcass weight, primarily supported by a 2.4% appreciation of the Brazilian real.

This year began with a more intense pace of beef production than expected, leading to upward adjustments in forecasts for the full year. As a result, the decline compared to the 2024 record is projected to be minimal.

In the first two weeks of March, Brazil exported 117,481 tons of beef worth US$572.021 million, according to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). In the second week of the month, 56,936 tons were shipped, maintaining a brisk pace of over 11,000 tons per day, though lower than during the first week of the month.

The expansion of animal protein production remained strong in 2024. According to detailed data released yesterday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Ibge), the slaughter of cattle, pigs, and chickens reached all-time highs last year.

The sharp rise in beef production last year allowed both exports and domestic consumption to reach record levels. Based on Secex data, Brazil exported the equivalent of 3.55 million tons carcass weight, an annual increase of 25%.

JBS is in the race to acquire Al-Watania Poultry, the largest poultry producer in the Middle East. According to Bloomberg, the bidding process involves other major companies, such as Almarai Company, a food industry giant from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Marfrig Global Foods announced the issuance of R$ 1.8 billion in simple debentures (unsecured debt), in up to five series, for cattle purchases. The fundraising will be conducted by Eco Securitizadora, which will issue Agribusiness Receivables Certificates (CRAs) to raise R$ 1.5 billion in the market.

Most cattle markets in Brazil held stable prices for finished males compared to the previous week, indicating that the downward trend observed in previous weeks has started to wane. This is also reflected by a shortening of booking times and matches a second consecutive week of rising prices for live cattle (boi gordo) in the B3 futures market.

As of the end of January, Uruguay’s meatpacking industry had US$ 390 million in outstanding loans with public and private banks, according to data from the Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU). Compared to January 2024, liabilities increased by approximately US$ 79 million. This also marks the highest level of debt since July 2023, when it stood at US$ 401 million.

In February, the value generated by selling all products from a Type Steer 2.0 after industrial processing was US$1,613 per head, 0.4% higher than January’s figure in dollars (+US$6). The indicator rose by 13% compared to the same month last year (+US$183) and reached its highest level since September 2022 (US$1,718).

The finished cattle market remains very firm, driven by keen demand and practically ideal forage conditions at the start of autumn. However, market operators consulted by WBR agreed that there is slightly more supply available, reflected in a more balanced market and somewhat longer bookings.

Cattle slaughter rebounded from the previous week's low, rising 20% to around 45,000 head. According to INAC, 45,803 cattle were slaughtered in the week ending March 15, an increase of nearly 7,500 head compared to the previous week, although still 2% lower than the 47,000 head processed during the same period last year

Although the sheep meat market currently involves only two plants, it remains firm due to very limited supply. Lambs are trading at US$4.30, and mutton around US$3.60 per kilo, provided the carcasses are under 24 kg.

Although the greatest expectation within Argentina’s beef chain regarding China is the opening of that market to offal, this week’s visit by a delegation from the Asian country has so far yielded good news only for bovine gallstones.

The ABC Consortium is optimistic about an additional quota in the United States that would help reduce the sector’s dependence on China. Argentina’s beef exports started the year off on the wrong foot. In January, year-over-year exports dropped by 20%, mainly due to three key factors: lower cattle supply and a combination of low international prices and the sector’s current competitiveness conditions. Despite these challenges, the ABC Export Consortium remains hopeful for positive news this year.

In a joint statement following the meeting between the Argentine and Chinese delegations, it was announced that Argentine poultry exports are once again authorized for China, after two years of closure due to the 2023 avian influenza outbreak.

The government published Resolution 180/2025 in the Official Gazette, changing the sanitary conditions for admitting meat with or without bone, meat products, and reproductive material into Patagonia (a region recognized as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) free without vaccination) from the north of the country (which vaccinates).

Prices for export cattle remained firm. Steers of British breeds solidified at the lower end and hover around Ar$5,000–5,100 per kilo on the hook, while Zebu crossbreds continue at Ar$4,900–5,000.

Cattle prices have risen over the past week amid plentiful rainfall that relieved many water sources in the Chaco region. In fact, a major Paraguayan plant was unable to slaughter for two days because closed roads made it impossible to transport cattle.

US consumer sentiment plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March and inflation expectations soared amid worries that President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have ignited a trade war, would boost prices and undercut the economy.

The National Coffee Association (NCA) of the United States has urged the Trump administration to exempt coffee from any tariffs, arguing that the additional tariffs already imposed on Canada and Mexico could drive up prices in the U.S. by as much as 50%.

Shane Smith, CEO of Smithfield Foods—the largest pork company in the U.S., owned by Chinese firm WH Foods—has pointed out that his company is required to sell all the pork and byproducts they process after slaughtering animals.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) in the United States argues that the US-Australia Free Trade Agreement unfairly benefits Australian beef producers, who have enjoyed open access to the US market for two decades. Meanwhile, fresh US beef remains banned in Australia due to what the NCBA calls excessive biosecurity barriers. In the last 20 years, while Australia exported beef products to the USA for US$ 28.7 billion, the USA sold just beef cooked products for US$ 31 million.

There is surfacing some evidence that the brash actions of the past month will be working their way to a rational conclusion. Trump is meeting this month with leaders of Mexico, Canada and possibly next month China. Markets in the meantime will find their footing and develop more calm in the wake, considered The AG Center. Cattle owners will press to extend the rally in cash prices this week.

Compared to last market test, US beef import prices were generally steady, instances weak to lower.

Germany has regained its status as free of foot-and-mouth disease in most areas of the country, opening the way for the lifting of export restrictions on meat and dairy products, Reuters reported, citing Germany’s agriculture ministry.

Imported beef stocks grew again in China during February, marking two consecutive months of recovery after the consistent decline observed throughout the second half of last year.

In its March Monthly bulletin, OIG+X included an analysis of the trends observed in consumption during the 2025 Spring Festival. “The total sales revenue of national retail and dining enterprises increased by 4.1% YoY. Restaurant reservations surged significantly, with New Year's Eve dinner bookings being particularly popular,” the report said.

On March 16, as the approval of hundreds of US meat exporting establishments to China was set to expire, China Customs extended the authorization for poultry and pork exporters but allowed the approvals for beef exporters to lapse.

China imported 470,000 metric tons (shipped weight) of beef in the first two months of 2025, according to Customs data released by OIG+X. This volume contracted by 11% compared to the same period in 2024. However, a rise in the average import value meant that the total value drop was just 2.4%, to US$1.742 billion.

The USDA has released one of its semiannual reports on the trends in beef and pork production and imports for Japan. Demand for cheaper beef, such as that from dairy cows, increased as a reasonable alternative to more expensive imported beef. However, domestic beef supply was limited in 2024 as dairy farmers expanded their herds to boost milk production, which also led to a reduction in the slaughter of dairy cows and heifers.

The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) has confirmed a case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in China involving a herd that was being transported in Hami, Xinjiang Province, in the northwest of the country. The case was confirmed by the Animal Epidemic Prevention and Control Center of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

South Korea has confirmed a foot-and-mouth disease case in a cattle farm, the first such outbreak in nearly two years, Reuters reported, citing the agriculture ministry on Friday.