USDA forecasts stable beef imports for Japan in 2025

The USDA has released one of its semiannual reports on the trends in beef and pork production and imports for Japan. Demand for cheaper beef, such as that from dairy cows, increased as a reasonable alternative to more expensive imported beef. However, domestic beef supply was limited in 2024 as dairy farmers expanded their herds to boost milk production, which also led to a reduction in the slaughter of dairy cows and heifers.

According to the USDA, Japan’s beef consumption is expected to remain weak in 2025, following similar trends to 2024, as persistent inflation continues to limit consumer spending, particularly on premium foods. There is a shift toward more affordable animal proteins, such as pork, leading to a decline in household beef consumption. Despite this, demand is projected to be around 1.20 million tons.

Japanese beef imports in 2025 are expected to remain stagnant, as importers will only purchase to meet current needs until business conditions improve. The combination of a strong US dollar against the Japanese yen and weaker beef demand led to significant beef stockpiling by the end of 2024. In 2024, Japan imported 736,193 tons, a 5% increase compared to 2023. The leading supplier was Australia, accounting for 48% of total imports, followed by the United States with 35%. Australian beef was 12% cheaper than US beef due to lower production costs. Industry sources noted that some Japanese retailers switched from US to Australian beef due to the price difference.

For this year, beef imports are projected at 730,000 carcass weight tons, reflecting a slight annual decrease of 6,000 tons.