Report 1618

“Few Chinese, little demand,” summarized a regional exporter regarding the situation facing the world’s largest beef importer. Lunar New Year festivities, or the Spring Festival, begin today, January 29, and continue through February 4.

Hilton prices remained mostly stable over the past week. One importer managed purchases at US$13,700–13,900 per ton FOB for rump & loin cuts from Argentina and US$12,700–13,000 from Uruguay.

Regional beef supply destined for the US has risen noticeably in recent days, according to a regional trader. Even so, the source mentioned a stable reference for a 90 CL outside the quota from Uruguay at US$4,700 per ton FOB. Meanwhile, from Paraguay there were references of US$5,100 per ton CFR for 95 CL in blocks.

Some Chilean importers have had payment difficulties over the past week, warned an intermediary in conversation with WBR. Nevertheless, although consumption is slow, prices for new purchases remain relatively stable, with a reference for 19 cuts from..

Over the last week, deals were made from Uruguay for mutton carcasses and in six cuts at US$3,700 per ton CFR, unchanged from prices seven days earlier.

A Uruguayan exporter commented that last week they received bids from Russia for liver at US$1,000 per ton and tongue at US$4,300 per ton FOB.

The average value of steers in Mercosur countries accelerated its upward trend this past week. The WBR Mercosur Steer Index rose by US$0.09 on the week to US$3.78 per kilo carcass weight, accumulating a total recovery of US$0.24 since the start of the year. It is the highest value since the first days of December 2023.

Brazil’s production of beef, pork, and poultry is estimated to total 31.57 million tons in 2024. This estimated result is the highest level ever recorded in the historical series of the National Supply Company (Conab), driven by the peak in slaughter during the cattle cycle. For 2025, overall production of the three proteins is expected to remain stable at 31.56 million tons, with an increase in pork and poultry output.

The volume of beef exported in the third week of January fell to 30,586 metric tons, with a daily rate of 6,117 tons. This figure is clearly below the more than 9,000 tons shipped daily during the first two weeks of the month and represents the slowest pace since late April 2024.

Last week, the Chief of Staff, Minister Rui Costa, stated that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration will hold meetings to define measures aimed at reducing food prices, with the expectation that better harvests in 2025 will help achieve that reduction. “We will hold meetings with the Ministers of Agriculture, Agrarian Development, and Finance to look for interventions that make food cheaper,” Costa said on the Bom Dia program, broadcast by CanalGov.

Although some products exported to the United States face the risk of tariffs under the new administration of President Donald Trump, beef shipments from Brazil are not expected to be affected. On the contrary, there is potential for growth in sales to the US this year and beyond.

After a strong performance in 2024, shares of JBS, Marfrig, and BRF started this year under significant pressure, mainly due to expectations of deteriorating margins in chicken production. Since the beginning of the year, JBS shares have dropped 7.3% on the Brazilian stock exchange, while BRF and Marfrig have fallen 14.2% and 12.2%, respectively.

Citi lowered its recommendation for Minerva Foods’ stock from buy to neutral (with a target price of R$5.50 and a 10.6% upside potential). Following the news, the company’s stock ended trading on Wednesday the 22nd, down 3.42% at R$4.80, one of the biggest declines on Ibovespa.

Prices for slaughter cattle remained relatively stable over the past week, with some regions still seeing increases (Mato Grosso, Goiás), others stable (São Paulo, Minas Gerais), and others correcting downward (Mato Grosso do Sul) in terms of the reference in Brazilian reals. In São Paulo, the so-called “boi China” price rose, increasing the premium compared to the common steer to R$/@ 8, quoted at R$/@ 330.

On Monday, the Ministry of Livestock “celebrated” the approval of the International Sanitary Certificate (CSI) for the export of frozen bone-in and boneless beef and offal to the Philippine market. “This achievement concludes a process started in 2022 and reaffirms the country’s commitment to opening new trade destinations,” the MGAP stated in a press release.

The focus of much of the meatpacking industry on grainfed cattle for the European 481 quota has in the past influenced prices for grassfed cattle by reducing demand for them. But that has changed.

The 2024 breeding season was practically ideal, resulting in the lowest proportion of postpartum anestrous cows so far this century. In the current breeding season, the share of pregnant cows is lower than it was last year, while the number of postpartum anestrous cows has increased. Even so, the figures are among the best on record.

Bone-in sheep meat was approved by Israel at the beginning of last year. After an erratic start, exports began to gain momentum from December, and so far in 2025, Israel has become the second-largest destination by volume for Uruguayan sheep meat—just slightly behind Brazil—and the number one destination in terms of revenue.

Amid production geared toward the quota window, the industry’s positioning in the cattle market is highly uneven. Some plants are quoting lower prices than they did last week, while others are willing to pay the top-end prices that have been in effect for several weeks.

You’d have to go back to December 2023 to find a week with a higher cattle slaughter than the most recent one. According to INAC, 54,265 head of cattle were slaughtered in the week ending January 25, an increase of 3,540 head from the previous week. This growth was driven by higher activity with steers and heifers, a consequence of the start of the production window for the European 481 quota, covering grainfed animals.

The sheep meat market remains firm, with prices unchanged from the previous week, at US$4.15–4.20 per kilo carcass weight for lambs and US$3.40–3.50 for mutton.

The Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries allocated among 55 companies the 2025 quota of fresh, chilled, or frozen boneless beef cuts for the United States. Of the total duty-free 20,000 tons, it assigned 19,123.75, leaving the remaining 876.25 tons as a Freely Available Fund for those who fully utilize their allocated shares.

Amid a complex situation for agricultural producers —affected by severe drought and very low international grain prices— the government issued a decree lowering export taxes on many products to 0% and reducing tariffs on key exported grains until June 30.

Export steer prices rose by Ar$100. British-breed finished steers are trading at Ar$4,400–4,500 per kilo carcass weight, and zebu cross steers moved up to Ar$4,300–4,400.

The Paraguayan export industry is eagerly awaiting the outcome of a technical visit that would enable the export of special kosher products to the US.

In a scenario where slaughter bookings in some cases have been pushed back to February 14 or 17, cattle prices showed a “notable firmness” over the last week, an intermediary reported to WBR.

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.8 million head on Jan. 1, 2025. The inventory was 1% below Jan. 1, 2024, USDA NASS reported on Friday.

The AG Center said that “cattle owners on the US southern plains took it on the chin past week as sales that priced cattle for formula, grid, over the top, and cash were mostly set before futures and cash jumped several dollars.

Compared to the last market test, US beef import prices were generally steady, instances steady to firm.

Cattle prices in Turkey started 2025 on a strong upward trajectory due to a shortage of domestic supply. This shortfall has also led to demand for cattle imports surpassing by a wide margin the quantity the government announced for importing this year.

Russia continues to strengthen its position in the global market for meat and meat products, according to information posted on the official website of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. From January to November 2024, the country maintained steady growth in meat production.

Use of anti-obesity medications or AOMs and the associated demand for protein rich foods is a global trend set to benefit Australian producers of lamb, beef and goat, said Beef Central. Changed eating patterns due to the rising use of anti-obesity drugs, increased use of biological fertilizers, a shift towards in-home alcohol consumption and increasing demand for dairy products for older consumers are among top global food and agri trends set to be felt in Australia in the next five years, according to a Rabobank podcast series.

Of the 2.87 million tons of beef imported by China in 2024, 2.18 million came from the three Mercosur countries that maintain trade relations with the Asian powerhouse: Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. Therefore, more than three out of every four kilos (76% of the total) originated from these countries.

Despite the competition posed by the United States, which pays very high prices for imported beef, exports from the two main suppliers to the Chinese market —Brazil and Argentina— rose on a year-over-year basis, largely explaining the increase in China’s import volume in 2024.

Chinese livestock and meatpacking associations —which petitioned Beijing to impose a safeguard measure against beef imports— argue that the uncontrolled influx of imported products has undermined domestic protein prices, squeezed profits, and jeopardized the sector with the threat of “more serious harm,” Globo Rural reported.

China has prohibited imports of sheep, goat, poultry and even-toed ungulates from African, Asian and European countries due to outbreaks of livestock diseases such as sheep pox, goat pox and foot-and-mouth-disease.

Brazil, the world’s top beef exporter, is in advanced talks to begin shipments to Japan, according to a major industry group, in a move that may hurt US sales to the Asian nation. Brazil has provided Japan with information about its production system and shipments for two decades, and now the industry is optimistic that the world’s third-biggest importer of the meat will finally open its market, according to Roberto Perosa, who formerly served in the country’s agriculture ministry and is the current president of the Brazilian Association of Beef Exporters.