New Zealand beef production forecast to rise

According to the USDA Livestock and Products Semi-annual report, favorable pricing and weather conditions for New Zealand cattle farmers have resulted in a retention of finishing cattle on farms and less slaughter in 2024. Farm operations face challenges with continuing financial pressure such as high debt, increasing on-farm inflation, and declining farmgate margins. The USDA office in Wellington said that 2025 market year (MY) production forecast is up on the outgoing year. If realized, it would be the second highest production in a single year. This is due to forecasts that prime beef from steers and heifers in the first half of 2025 are expected to be up in carcass weight and numbers. For the 2024 MY, beef and veal exports concluded 5 percent less than the previous year. The United States was the largest importer of beef and veal products, at almost 40 percent market share. Exports faced headwinds due to a 29 percent decrease in volumes to China, which was New Zealand’s largest market in the prior year.

FAS/Wellington maintains the USDA Official for total slaughter in the 2025 MY of 4.64 million head. This is a 143,000 head or 3.2 percent increase on the outgoing year.

FAS Wellington has revised the forecast for beef production in 2025 MY to be 750,000 t a 10,000 MT CWE decrease on the USDA Official projection. This reflects the increase in slaughter numbers from the outgoing year and the increase in calf slaughter rates. FAS Wellington has revised beef and veal exports for 2025 MY to 675,000 MT CWE, down 10,000 MT CWE from the USDA Official.