Analyst forecasts a 5–7% drop in slaughter and challenges for exporting meatpackers

“This year will see a significant decrease in supply, by about 200,000 tons, roughly 5–7% below what was slaughtered in 2023 and 2024, which were two years of high slaughter and declining cattle inventories,” said cattle analyst Víctor Tonelli. After last year’s modest herd liquidation, “2025 is likely to improve in terms of weather, restoring forage supply and thus restarting a cycle of herd recovery. That’s why I anticipate a substantial drop in supply,” he explained.