Challenges arise for beef valuation

The beef cattle market closed January with a slight 1.5% uptick for the arroba (@), according to researcher Thiago Bernardino de Carvalho of the Center for Applied Economic Research (Cepea). Despite this increase, the scenario poses challenges, such as declining beef prices and greater competitiveness from other proteins.

Throughout January, the Cepea indicator showed an appreciation in finished cattle prices, rising from R$320 to an average of R$325. However, beef prices depreciated, ending the month with a carcass price at R$337 in the São Paulo wholesale market—a drop of R$3.

For February, forecasts indicate a slightly weaker market, with futures contracts pointing to values around R$320 per arroba of finished cattle by the end of the month and a downward trend thereafter. According to Bernardino, this movement is influenced by a greater supply of animals—especially cull females—and by the competitiveness of pork and chicken.

With salaries being paid in early February and Carnival approaching, a slight increase in domestic demand for beef is expected. However, stronger competition from pork and chicken could limit significant price adjustments for beef. The sector remains attentive to external market movements and the behavior of slaughterhouses in their purchases throughout the month.