Production records to be broken as Australian cattle herd declines

Australia’s national cattle herd and sheep flock are both expected to decline slightly as record production, slaughter and exports meet demand, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) 2025 Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections.

The cattle herd is projected to fall by 1.4% to 30.1 million head in 2025 due to increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in Southern Australia. Looking ahead, MLA forecasts an increase in turn-off to manage carrying capacity, leading to a projected 3.1% decline in the herd to 29.2m in 2026, followed by another 1.4% decrease to 28.8m head in 2027.

Supply is expected to remain solid through 2025. With the herd’s increased turn-off capability and a slight rise in stock turn-off rates, slaughter is projected to increase 2.8% to 8.54m head. However, as the herd shrinks, turn-off capability will be impacted, leading to an estimated 4.7% reduction in slaughter to 8.13m head in 2026, followed by a further 3.5% decrease to 7.85m in 2027.

In 2025, production is forecast to reach a new record, increasing by 2% to 2.62m tons. While carcass weights are expected to slightly decrease, the rise in slaughter volume will offset this. However, as slaughter rates decline over the following two years, production is expected to drop by 3.9% to 2.52m tons in 2026, and by another 0.9% to 2.50m tons in 2027.

In 2025, Australian cattle supply for live export is expected to remain strong, aligning with 2024 levels (766,044 head).

According to MLA Managing Director, Michael Crowley, the Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections show that the red meat industry is ready to respond to global demand in 2025. Australian beef exports are expected to increase 3% to 2,035 tons in 2025 (+63,000 tons).

“Record production and elevated slaughter rates are being met with strong demand from well-established relationships with customers throughout the global supply chain,” Mr Crowley said.

Australia produced more beef than ever in 2024, despite slaughter volumes being 7% below the previous record in 2014. This was due to higher carcass weights, primarily due to increased grainfed production.

“Producers are growing more efficient and productive cattle compared to 10 years ago. This is important considering the significant global demand for beef will continue this year, leading to another record production year,” Mr Crowley said.

“Australia is currently in an opposite supply cycle to major beef-producing competitors such as the United States and Brazil. As the US begins its long-overdue herd rebuild and drought conditions in Brazil ease, global beef supply is expected to tighten. As record production continues into 2025, efficient logistics and supply chain management will become increasingly important. “Australia is well-positioned to achieve record production and export volumes once again,” Mr Crowley said.