Is there an oversupply of beef in the Brazilian market?

Domestic beef supply reached a record high at the beginning of 2025. According to Cepea, the total for January and February exceeded the volume for the same period in 2024 by 10% and was 38% higher than in 2023. Despite the increase in production, the average price for bone-in carcasses in the wholesale market of Greater São Paulo was 25% higher than at the beginning of last year, considering values adjusted by the IGP-DI.

The price of the finished male (CEPEA/ESALQ-SP Indicator) increased by 23% in the same comparison. Exports also grew: the volume shipped was 6% higher than in the first two months of 2024 and 33% higher than in the same period of 2023.

Cepea researchers attribute this performance to the productive strength of Brazil’s livestock complex and the resilience of domestic demand, aided by low unemployment. In January, domestic availability reached the highest level on record. For February, a 9% drop is estimated compared to January, due to reduced slaughter; however, it is still 7% higher than the volume recorded a year earlier.